Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Texas Energy Prices - U.S. Energy Prices

U.S. & Texas energy prices are greatly affected by industry demand. The higher the demand for fuel, the more expensive it becomes. Although the economic climate of 2009 should have reduced U.S. energy prices, growing demand for crude oil in other countries has kept the price much higher than is desirable.

Oil consumption worldwide increased by 28.6% between 1978 and 2004. It is only a small amount less than that, 25.8% of this year's increase alone, that China is responsible for. South Korea's demand for oil rose by a staggering 344% from 1978 to 2004, also widely increasing demand for oil. This growth in demand for oil has driven prices up to approximately $70 a barrel in the last quarter of 2009, from just $12 at the start of 1999.

The price of crude oil directly influences the cost of other fuels. Whether it be for production or generation, crude oil and other fossil fuels are vital to electricity, gasoline, and petroleum. Although oil prices dropped in the first half of 2009, due to a fall in consumption of 1.25 million barrels a day, the price will rise again in 2010 as industry recovers from the recession and demand begins to rise once more.

Respectively, gasoline prices are expected to drop again in the fourth quarter of 2009, before going back on the rise in 2010. Average gasoline prices can be expected to increase by about 40c per gallon from 2009 to 2010. However, the average retail price of electricity is set to decline by 2% due to the cheaper price of fossil fuels required for generation.

While the economy remains unstable, U.S. energy prices will be less certain. In the supply and demand chain, if fuel prices suddenly rise too high, demand will decrease as smaller businesses and companies can no longer afford production. However, while prices are on the decline it will help industry pick up again as their profits increase. The delicate balance should be maintained by both crude oil sales and industry relying on each other. Undoubtedly, as the economy picks up speed once more, crude oil prices will increase. It is only a matter of time before other fuel prices follow.

The first half of 2009 saw a substantial fall in electricity consumption, in the U.S. Electricity sales declined as businesses and residential properties cut back to save money. An uncertain economic climate was responsible for a 4.4% decrease in comparison with 2008. However, the second half of 2009 was more positive. The decline leveled out at a less significant 2.3% decrease in electricity consumption. U.S. energy prices should remain low in the fourth quarter of 2009 before steadily rising again next year as industry improves and the economy settles. Electricity prices are not exempt from this, with estimated declines of 2% in 2010.

The economy is mentioned constantly in relation to U.S. energy prices. As the international recession is far from over, it is expected to take at least a year for demand for fuel to rise back to the peaks of previous years. Since early 2008, prices have steadily declined in response to the sudden uncertainty in finance and industry that had led to worldwide economic recession.

Crude oil prices seem to try to preempt the economy at every step of the way. When figures were released to suggest that the U.S. economy was recovering, prices jumped up, boosting the retail price of gasoline and petroleum. However, these prices dropped again almost immediately as it was made clear that a select amount of data was not the go ahead for a stable economy. For instance, although unemployment benefit claims have declined, the levels of unemployment are still not at a healthy level. While the economy recovers, U.S. energy prices will remain volatile.
With the lowered demand for energy, fuel stockpiles are much higher than expected. This is lowering the price, as more is available. Natural gas, for example, has stockpiles close to reaching a 5-year high. It will be a long time before demand outstrips supply once more and prices will significantly rise. However, while prices remain low, industry should be encouraged and the economy will be on its way to recovery.

Overall, U.S. energy prices have seen a decline in response to the lack of demand from industry and exports. While the worldwide economy stays uncertain, prices will only be able to rise so much before being cut back again. Electricity and gasoline prices have decreased in the fourth quarter of 2009 and will stay low in early 2010 before seeing gradual rise before the end of the year.

No comments: